Memorial Day weekend kicked off the 2021 summer travel season with TSA throughput reaching as high as ~1.9 MM non-crew passengers on Friday (5/28), comments a report from Cowen. The trailing 7-day average was above May's level by ~4 pts and in-line with Cowen’s forecasts on an absolute basis. Filled seats (Cowen’s load factor-like measure) broke pre-pandemic levels last week, indicating load factor is likely approaching 2019-levels.
Commenting, Cowen states that it believes domestic flights are seeing load factors “around pre-pandemic levels, thereby allowing airlines to manage price more than they've been able to through most of the pandemic. While only time will tell how long this dynamic will remain in play, the figures we are seeing for Memorial Day are a positive read for the domestic summer travel season at large”.
Business traffic remains depressed, however. Cowen states: “We believe the business travel recovery will begin accelerating in late 3Q21 / early 4Q21. At that time, children should be returning to school, employees will likely be returning to office (SMBs first, then large corporates), and the US government will likely have significantly reduced restrictions on gatherings.”