Cirium has published its annual fleet forecast which shows the future outlook of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market.
The forecast shows that 45,900 aircraft are predicted to be delivered globally over the next 20 years which equates to a total of $3.3 trillion, as airlines are continuing to invest in newer and more sustainable aircraft.
Looking ahead to the next 20 years, Cirium’s forecast also reveals that of the 45,900 new aircraft set to be delivered between 2024 and 2043 - around 98% will be passenger aircraft - as the firm predicts that capacity will grow by 4.4% per year.
Rob Morris, head of consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “As we continue to enter the next cycle of growth for the aviation industry, our new Fleet Forecast illustrates the continued demand for new aircraft, as airlines look to renew and expand their fleets. However, it is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing will continue to cause delays for OEMs, leading to uncertain delivery schedules for many airlines, and this has been factored into our forecast
He added: “The forecast also illustrates the challenge of sustainability and net-zero as fleet growth is balanced with new aircraft efficiency to drive reductions in unit emissions.”
In addition, the forecast predicts that Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft OEMs -delivering an estimated 84% of aircraft between them - with this figure projected to rise to 90% by value in 2043. COMAC is forecast to take a 6% share of demand.
Cirium has also revealed that single-aisle aircraft are projected to lead the industry’s growth over the next 20 years, with a projected 3.9% annual growth rate - exceeding the 3.3% for twin-aisles - as long-haul traffic continues to see slower growth post-pandemic. Regional aircraft are predicted to rise more modestly at an overall rate of 0.8% per year.