Aviation advisory firm Alton Aviation Consultancy has released its 2024-2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast, with the firm stating that “despite record profits, operators need to consider short- and long-term strategies to overcome production issues and secure additional capacity.”
Alton’s forecast offered insight into current market conditions, alongside a 10-year forecast of air traffic demand and the active fleet. The advisory firm’s projections indicate that 10,000 more aircraft should be in operation by 2034 - from the 31,000 aircraft in operation today - marking an annual growth rate of 2.8%.
“While dynamics differ in each region, the bounce back of global air travel has seen airlines shift their focus from recovery to expansion. We expect to see global passenger air traffic demand to increase by 4% annually over the next decade, with Asia-Pacific leading new growth,” said Adam Guthorn, report co-author and managing director in Alton’s New York office.
He continued: “Across all regions, we’re seeing strong demand for narrowbody jets such as the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX family aircraft, and we anticipate this trend to continue over the next 10 years. Narrowbody aircraft will account for two-thirds of the market by 2034, rising from 60% today.”
The report also highlights that over the next ten years - 120 aircraft will be converted into freighters each year - alongside 20 new production freighters each year.
Alan Lim, report co-author and director in Alton’s Singapore office added further: “Any changes to the macroeconomic outlook or geopolitical environment have the potential to tilt the industry’s anticipated rate of growth.
Lim added: “To navigate these challenges, airlines will need to be nimble and forward-looking, while considering a range of different eventualities. Keeping focused on the road ahead, carrying on with the execution of long-term strategies while being adaptable to fast-changing industry conditions will be critical to success.”