In advance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s headline-grabbing aircraft orders at the Paris Air Show 2025, Riyadh hosted the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Aviation Finance and Leasing conference on April 29–30. The event sent a clear signal: Saudi Arabia is not only ramping up investment in its aviation ecosystem, but is also rapidly advancing its ambitions to become a global centre for aircraft leasing, finance, and international air travel.
Amid the transformative momentum of Saudi’s Vision 2030, key players such as AviLease and Riyadh Air – supported by parent Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) – are driving the country’s growth. Existing airlines, Flyadeal, flynas, and Saudia, are advancing these ambitions with strong support from the finance and leasing community.
The Saudi Aviation Strategy 2030 – a key component of Saudi Vision 2030 – aims to transform the Kingdom into a global logistics hub and tourism destination. This strategy includes significant investments to handle 330 million passengers and 4.5 million tons of cargo annually, connecting to over 250 destinations through 29 airports by 2030, with aviation expected to contribute around 10% to GDP.
“We are all committed to achieving the national aviation strategy by 2030,” said Flyadeal CFO Abdulrahman Ajabnoor during the Airline CFO panel discussion at the Riyadh conference. The panel – moderated by Norton Rose Fulbright partner Marc Hamilton – also featured Krishnan Balakrishnan, CFO of Jazeera Airways.
Flyadeal’s Ajabnoor said that passenger demand has grown significantly in the region for the past few years, with plans to double its fleet by 2030 reflecting this uptick in demand. Jazeera’s Balakrishnan has plans to grow more modestly with a new terminal in Kuwait also planned.
Both CFOs noted that their airlines are shifting towards owning a greater share of their respective fleets, with Flyadeal moving away from its 100% leased model and Jazeera – which owns a quarter of its fleet – planning to increase to a majority-owned fleet for longer term stability. While both carriers remain committed to single aisle aircraft, they are also incorporating more widebodies into their fleets.
While demand is strong and continuing to grow, airlines in the region identified engine MRO delays as a major concern, with turnaround times increasing and spare engine costs rising. Both Jazeera and Flyadeal are investing into spare parts, hangars, and maintenance infrastructure to help mitigate these risks.
Both CFOs remarked that low-cost carriers are stimulating new demand and creating markets rather than simply competing with full-serve carriers, particularly on underserved routes. A positive strategy with the introduction of new Saudi airline Riyadh Air later this year, although Ajabnoor seemed content with this added competition, stating that the country’s airlines are all united in the Vision 2030 national strategy.
Riyadh Air’s CEO Tony Douglas spoke with AviLease CEO Ted O’Byrne during a fireside chat at the conference, both companies are backed by PIF. At the time the conference was held, the US-led tariff conflict exploded. Douglas joked that – since China had temporarily paused Boeing imports amid heightened trade tensions – Riyadh Air would “take them all” as the company awaits its delayed first deliveries to commence operations. He emphasised the aviation industry’s resilience, noting how the sector has routinely faced geopolitical and economic challenges, and would weather the storm of tariff-related uncertainty.
During another panel discussion – Positioning Riyadh as an Attractive Aircraft Leasing & Finance Hub – speakers were confident that the city would become a key economic location for aviation finance. The panel, moderated by Morgan, Lewis & Bockius partner James Bradley, featured KPMG former head of aviation finance and partner Joe O’Mara; Tiang & Partners partner Tejaswi Nimmagadda; AviLease deputy general counsel Hussain Alshammasi; Boeing managing director, Middle East & Africa, customer finance Ahsen Rajput; and Watson Farley & Williams partner Jim Bell. The panellists spoke of how tax reforms, including special economic zones, are being explored to allow foreign lessors to operate locally. New laws have also allowed for more flexible governance, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), and modern corporate structures that align the Kingdom with the global financing environment.
The speakers spoke of growing investor confidence in the region towards aviation finance, with conferences such as Growth Frontiers Aviation Finance and Leasing facilitating the education of the market. The speakers noted the Middle East’s strong allowance of capital and growing expertise, making it a key region for ecosystem development. Additionally, the high demand for aircraft and strong collective orderbook positions the region as a critical location for aviation financing and investment.
Earlier in the month in Japan, the Palace Hotel played host to Airline Economics’ Growth Frontiers Tokyo 2025 on April 9-10. Only a few days prior, US President Donald Trump had introduced sweeping new tariffs on countries across the globe.
Tariffs were a recurring point of discussion in virtually every panel. Since President Trump had only introduced these reciprocal tariffs a matter of days prior to the conference, the points discussed were mostly speculative but the concern was palpable.
“Things are changing every day, and there is more that we don’t know than what we do know,” said Cirium head of valuations George Dimitroff during his Global Market Outlook with focus on Japan presentation. His point was proven to be true in the months that followed as the tariff conflict continued to play out. Dimitroff added that tariffs could potentially result in another disruption to the supply chain – already still recovering from the pandemic – and comes as major OEMs such as Airbus and Boeing have promised to increase production this year.
There were also growing fears of a potential recession ahead, which could see a dip in travel demand.
“The bigger concern is – if the market volatility causes consumer confidence to fall – travel budgets could be cut,” continued Dimitroff. “It doesn’t matter where you move the capacity to if people don’t want to spend time to travel.” He added that business travel could be impacted if a recession were to materialise.
“Longer term, the tariffs could affect the supply chain,” he continued. “It means production rates can’t go up – supply could come down as well as demand, but that could actually have a balancing effect on the market.”
Eric Anderson, who heads commercial airplanes for the north Asian region, commented that the current economic uncertainties would “inevitably have some short-term and immediate impact on demand”. The Airbus Update & Friends panel, which was moderated by the planemaker’s marketing manager for lessors, Alexander Selyanko, also featured ABL Aviation CEO Ali Ben Lmadani and Japan Airlines VP international network planning Motohisa Abe. Anderson said: “We see this with any cycle – either part of a normal economic cycle or one influenced by an external factor such as a pandemic or geopolitical shifts. The narrative is still encouraging going forward in terms of where the evolution is for demand as well as the need for capacity.”
While lease rates and market values could soften in the event of a recession, Dimitroff said this would come when these values are at a “record high” and, thus, there is, “still room for those values to cool off before they even get to base or balanced market level”.
ABL Aviation CEO Ali Ben Lmadani said during the Leasing discussion panel that tariff impact could “shake up the structures of the players in the market today” and could also present “amazing opportunities”.
The lessor panel was moderated by Morgan, Lewis & Bockius partner James Bradley and speakers also included: Novus Aviation Capital co-CEO Hani Kuzbari; Clover Aviation Capital chief commercial officer Haiyan Zheng; High Ridge Aviation founder and EVP Asia Antony Snelleman; and Carlyle Aviation Partners president Alexander Rasnavad.
The panellists discussed the weakness of the Japanese yen’s impact on airline costs, though also noting it has attracted higher inbound tourism. Speakers agreed that the Japanese market was competitive for lessors, with the market focussing on tier one companies – particularly after the global pandemic.
“It's a very limited market focused on tier one names, and it hopes to stay that way, because we saw during COVID [that] when people stepped outside of this model, many got burned. Investors on the equity side are also focused on tier one names. We were very successful in Japan thanks to this strategy. We helped a lot of people during COVID; it was a very difficult period situation for Japanese investors, which changed the whole market. As a result those equity investors remain focused on those quality, tier one names.”
Speakers mussed that the post-COVID surge in demand for travel could be dissipated by current economic uncertainties and the potential impact of any US and reciprocal tariffs.
During the Alternative Lenders Fireside discussion, LR AirFinance’s Neal McElvaney opined that tariffs may provide “volatility and dislocation” as well as opportunities for industry players. “There can be opportunities, but we need to be ready to move quickly,” he said.
The panel was moderated by Alton Aviation managing director Bradley Dailey and also featured PK AirFinance president Eelco van de Stadt, who readily agreed that opportunities could materialise.
During the second day of the conference on April 10, tariff discussions fired once again as Trump paused his reciprocal country-specific tariffs – except for China.
During a Lessor Fireside Chat, Aviation Capital Group president and CEO Tom Baker spoke of the tariff situation with KPMG’s Joe O’Mara, joked that he “had to get home” to the US after waking up to another batch of tariff changes that morning. He noted during the discussion that the tariff situation was bringing a significant disruption to the market.
“When you introduce volatility, uncertainty, and chaos, it’s a lot more challenging for airlines to operate, make money and serve the customers properly,” said Baker during the fireside chat. “What we’re seeing now is that chaos, volatility, and uncertainty.”
Baker added that OEMs will have to “figure out how to serve their customers with as little disruption and as little additional cost as possible”.
Trump’s abrupt U-turn that same day was unexpected, with many delegates taken by surprise that day. These sharp changes in regulation are creating an unstable environment. Even if the tariff policy was rescinded, it will be a difficult path towards stability for the US.
This instability has already had an impact with US carriers lowering their first quarter guidance as consumer confidence wanes in the face of economic uncertainty.
“We are a resilient industry, so we’ll figure it out,” added Baker. “We’ll fight our way through.”
He added: “With great change and great uncertainty comes great opportunity. Everybody needs to figure out the best way to move forward. Those who are nimble and can look around corners are going to find lots of opportunities.”
Panellists brought a more reserved view of the tariffs, reinforcing the need for greater knowledge on the impact – whilst lessors and asset managers highlighted a silver lining of the impact with the potential to uncover opportunities with swift action.