At the mid-point of 2025, the aviation industry finds itself contesting with a wide array of challenges, leaving original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in continuous limbo as to whether production targets and delivery deadlines will be met.
The start of the year painted a picture of optimism, with ambitious plans to scale up aircraft production and delivery rates. However, the ever-changing global geopolitical environment, marked by ongoing conflicts, trade wars and continued supply chain constraints, has introduced new hurdles for manufacturers.
After demonstrating clear attitudes to scale up the delivery of new aircraft, is it still viable to assume that everything is still on track?
For the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers – Airbus and Boeing – 2025 has been marked as a pivotal year for production. With Airbus aiming to deliver 820 commercial aircraft during the 12-month period, while Boeing aims to recoup losses made last year, when deliveries fell short of expectations.
2024 was a tricky period for Boeing. In January the blowout of a mid-exit door plug onboard an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 flight, led to the grounding and inspections of all 737 MAX 9 aircraft with the same mid-exit door plug as the affected plane. This action introduced by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) impacted the vast majority of approximately 220 737 MAX 9 aircraft within the in-service fleet
Later that month, the regulatory body approved an enhanced maintenance and inspection process that was required to be performed on each of the grounded MAX aircraft.
As a result of the accident, the FAA performed an investigation into the 737-quality control system. In the second quarter of 2024, Boeing submitted a comprehensive safety and quality plan to the FAA to address the issues identified. The manufacturer then slowed production rates and delayed planned production rate increases.
“The Alaska Airlines accident and our resulting actions, including slowing production to improve compliance with our manufacturing quality control requirements, significantly impacted our financial position, results of operations, and cash flows during 2024,” the company said in its 2024 Annual Report.
Around eight months later in September 2024, Boeing's US west coast factory workers walked out, after 96% voted in favour of strike action the previous day. These workers, based in Seattle and Portland, were responsible for the production the 737 MAX aircraft.
The 33,000 workers - represented by the International Association of Machinists (IAM) District 751 & W24 - had reached a tentative agreement with Boeing, which would have saw a 25% wage increase for the workers over a four-year contract, with an immediate 11% pay increase. However, 94.6% of members rejected the contract.
The work stoppage significantly reduced aircraft deliveries in the second half of 2024. It wasn’t until November 2024 that a new contract was ratified, with production resuming in early December 2024.
Prior to the work stoppage, production rates at the American manufacturer were gradually increasing in 2024. Boeing said that this was due to the implementation of new processes aligned with the company’s safety and quality plan.
“We closed this year essentially restarting our production system, which was really a key focus so that we could set up a baseline for 2025,” said Boeing vice president commercial marketing Darren Hulst in January at Airline Economics’ Growth Frontiers Dublin 2025. “For 2025, the key elements in place are the stability of the supply chain and then having the workforce ready to produce those aircraft and increase the output.”
Hulst said the supply and demand gap will reach a balance by 2030.
The company delivered a total of 348 commercial aircraft during the 12-month period, with no guidance for 2025 provided, after operations were significantly impacted by these incidents.
The below graph shows how Boeing’s trajectory slumped in in 2024, against that of rival Airbus, who continued an upwards trend, despite falling well below 2019 output levels.
Airbus delivered just four aircraft short of its target of 770 aircraft in 2024, but it still wasn’t plain sailing for Boeing’s European rival, which originally intended to deliver 800 aircraft but reduced this forecast in June 2024 amid ongoing supply-chain snags.
The ongoing war in Ukraine increased the risk of supply chain disruptions for Airbus in 2024, with the manufacturer implementing a de-risking plan to avoid shortages, particularly in titanium, which is sourced from Russia. In addition, specific supply chain issues, notably with Spirit AeroSystems, put pressure on the ramp-up of the A350 and A220 programmes.
Airbus continued to ramp up production to meet strong market demand, with the A320 family programme aiming for a rate of 75 aircraft per month by 2027. However, stabilising the monthly production of the A330 at around four aircraft and addressing the ramp-up pressures for the A350 and A220 were significant challenges faced during the year.
By the end of 2024, Airbus had a record backlog of 8,658 commercial aircraft, with the A321 representing 70% of the company’s orderbook backlog.
Since the beginning of 2025, the company has seen a significant improvement, with a 40% reduction in disruptions caused by delayed components at its production facilities, Florent Massou dit Labaquère, Airbus’ commercial executive vice president of operations, said at the company’s business outlook at the Paris Air Show on June 18, 2025.
He also noted that Airbus has not changed course from its production plans since the beginning of the year, with the level of missing parts in Airbus’ overall production system is now at the same level as it was in 2018 or 2019, before the supply chain crisis unfolded.
Also speaking at the business update, Guillaume Faury, Airbus CEO, said the manufacturer has “turned a corner”, with traffic higher than pre-COVID levels, acknowledging that it takes longer to ramp up the supply chain for manufacturers. This was also something reiterated by Christian Scherer, CEO of the company’s commercial aircraft business, who stated that two thirds of Airbus resources are engaged in producing aircraft – around 97,000 employees.
At the start of the year, during Airline Economics’ Growth Frontiers conference in Dublin, Rob Morris, head of consultancy at Cirium, provided an outlook with a share of optimism. “Nothing can go wrong now,” he stated, albeit with a hint of irony, when referring to the year ahead, noting that the driving factors behind this outlook were demand, supply, and leasing.
Some five months after this presentation was first made, Morris stated that Cirium’s view on original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries for this year has altered, specifically because of progress to date.
He noted that the company’s latest formal view is that Airbus will deliver “around” 820 passenger aircraft, including some 630 A320neo family jets, with Boeing delivering around 560 passenger aircraft, which includes around 470 737 MAXs.
“However, I believe there is currently a downside risk in each of these projections,” Morris said, when speaking to Airline Economics on June 26, 2025. “Airbus have delivered only 243 aircraft to the end of May, and we can see another 44 deliveries this month (June) so far. If they maintain current June progress, then perhaps they will achieve around 53 aircraft this month.”
Airbus recently stated that it has around 40 “glider” aircraft in inventory, mostly likely awaiting CFM engines before they can be delivered to customers. Airbus confirmed this during a business update at the Paris Air Show on June 18, 2025, where the company stated that supply chain issues that have left these almost 40 aircraft stranded without engines, as shortages of cabin equipment and at power plants disrupt deliveries.
Morris stated that if 30 of these aircraft in inventory could be delivered quickly, then Airbus would have delivered around 326 aircraft by the mid-point of this year.
“In the past seven years, Airbus have averaged at 42% of total annual deliveries in the first six months of each year, whilst over the past 15 years it has been 45%. On these two average performances, 326 deliveries this year guides towards 730-770 annual deliveries,” he noted.
At the mid-point of the year, commercial aircraft shipments are 5% below 2024 levels.
Morris stated that Airbus will need to “significantly increase output” in the second half of 2025 to unprecedented levels as a share of the annual total, to achieve 820 deliveries. “I think this is unlikely because production output isn’t showing signs of improvement.”
Morris also indicated that Cirium first flight data indicates an average of 45 A320 family aircraft have been produced monthly over the past three months, with around 30 in June, which even accounting for these gliders, doesn’t seem to accord with an output of 60 aircraft per month which Airbus is claiming.
Away from Airbus, the consultancy head recognised “quiet progress” taking place at Boeing, although the manufacturer had achieved only 191 passenger deliveries by the end of May.
He stated that following the same monthly build-up logic, this figure suggests around 470 annual deliveries by the American manufacturer - short of Cirium’s 560 aircraft hypothesis.
Boeing confirmed to Airline Economics that it rolled out 38 737 MAX jets in May and is currently transitioning towards producing seven aircraft every month. The manufacturer also noted that it is “methodically” working to achieve rolling out three 767s and four 777/777X aircraft.
As part of the company’s Safety & Quality Plan, Boeing has expedited the implementation of its Safety Management System (SMS), introducing a new "Move Ready" process. This initiative aims to manage travelled work by applying stringent criteria to determine whether tasks can be safely completed immediately or if postponing them would jeopardize product safety and quality.
To date, Boeing has evaluated over 2,000 line moves using this process, achieving a 50% reduction in travelled work for its 737 and 787 programs.
“It does seem likely that Boeing will fall a little short of our 560, but I think there is less risk here,” Morris added.
In addition to the remainder of this year, Morris also pointed to risks in 2026. Cirium currently projects around 1,000 for Airbus deliveries, including 760 neo aircraft and 700 for Boeing, including 550 MAX jets.
“The former requires a sustained monthly rate in excess of 65 so we will need to see significant changes at Airbus and their engine suppliers,” Morris said. “Boeing would also need to produce 46 per month, which would require the FAA to remove the 38 per month cap."
Morris noted that 2025 will remain short of new aircraft deliveries, something which is likely to sustain into 2026.
The struggles faced by OEMs have also impacted airlines. Carriers such as China Airlines, Korean Air and Copa Airlines have all voiced that they will prolong the life of aircraft within their current fleets due to delivery delays.
Raphael Haddad, president at aircraft trading firm Jetcraft Commercial, told Airline Economics that airline customers that he has been in contact with have mostly identified delivery delays as lying within production lines, stating that a persistent shortfall of trained professionals is hindering production line efficiency.
“This is leading to an increase in ‘travelled work’ – unfinished components or systems that must be completed further along the assembly process or even post-delivery,” said Haddad.
These inefficiencies therefore create “downward stream” pressure and introduce variability in delivery schedules. He stated that operators are now relying more heavily on interim solutions, particularly from the secondary market, as they experience longer lead times.
Along with labour shortages hindering OEM output, Haddad also acknowledged geopolitical instability as a major cause for such delays, citing fresh military conflicts, renewed fuel price volatility and shifts in trade policy.
“These pressures are extending lead times and making it harder for OEMs to stabilise output,” Haddad added. “This reality requires airlines, lessors and trading specialists alike to remain flexible in their approach to sourcing aircraft.”
This is disproportionately felt on a global basis, said Haddad, stating that an aircraft shortage challenge is particularly clear in regions with fast-growing passenger demand but limited access to new aircraft, such as in the Asia-Pacific region.
He refrained from commenting as to whether manufacturers such as Airbus would meet delivery targets set for 2025.
Along with airframers, engine manufacturers are also scaling up production, with GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp noting in May that supply chain improvements are supporting the company’s expectations for LEAP engine deliveries to grow 15-20% this year.
Speaking during a commercial engines update at the Paris Air Show, Rick Deurloo, president of commercial engines at Pratt & Whitney, stated that in relation to supply chain constraints, the company is facing new challenges every day.
“Different suppliers come and go,” he noted, but the production of engine forgings has significantly increased compared to the same period last year. “There's insatiable desire to have as much forging as we can, but we're right on track,” Deurloo stated.
Off the back of this presentation made in Paris, Pratt & Whitney told Airline Economics that the company is “ramping up” production capacity to support what it described as growing demand for the company’s geared turbofan (GTF) engines, with the manufacturer noting that it is in “constant dialogue” with the airframers, aligning on production rates.
“They’ve been partnering strongly with us to balance the support of the current fleet with their production needs, and we’ll continue that,” the company added.
Pratt & Whitney is still currently grappling with a backlog of GTF engines which stem from manufacturing flaws, leading to operational disruptions and financial repercussions.
The PW1100G-JM model, used in the Airbus A320neo family, was found to contain a rare condition in the powder metal used for certain engine parts. This defect has led to accelerated inspections of approximately 3,000 engines, severely impacting global airline operations.
Airlines such as Air New Zealand, JetBlue, and Cebu Pacific have reported operational disruptions. Wizz Air has projected a potential 10% capacity reduction for the latter half of fiscal 2024 due to the grounding of aircraft for inspections.
RTX, the parent company of Pratt & Whitney, has announced a $3bn charge related to these engine issues, highlighting the financial strain on both the company and its customers.
Pratt & Whitney said the ramp up includes “expanding existing facilities, incorporating state-of-the-art manufacturing technologies and working closely with partners and supply base, putting in place long-term agreements with key suppliers as well as adding new suppliers”.
These investments include nearly $1bn in a new turbine airfoil facility in Asheville, North Carolina. Pratt & Whitney said this facility will house an advanced casting foundry as well as conduct machining, coating and finishing of airfoils onsite, with output will double there again this year.
“We are also continuing to invest in the company’s facility in Columbus, Georgia to increase maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) and forging capacity,” the company said.
Additionally, an investment of $38 million in a third atomisation tower at the manufacturer's HMI facility in New York is expected to provide a 50% increase in powder metal production capacity and is scheduled to come online in the second half of 2026.
In accordance with Pratt & Whitney’s first quarter earnings call, the company said it has seen steady improvements continuing in manufacturing output during the quarter, with structural castings up 16% and forging up 10% year on the year prior, with material flow remaining the focus for increasing production and MRO output.
The outlook for the remainder of 2025 suggests that delivery shortfalls are an increasingly more apparent possibility, despite the major efforts from OEMs to stabilise their output. While signs of recovery are starting to appear across the industry, the path to full-scale production recovery could remain a challenging one as we enter the second half of the year. The ‘race to ramp up’ is far from over.