TD Cowen provided an update on the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, H5N1, for January 2025. The virus, also known as bird flu, primarily infects and circulates among bird species. H5N1 has affected over 130 million birds since 2022. However, there has now been confirmed outbreaks impacting dairy herds in 16 US states.
“This is an important development, since it is the first time that a bird flu virus has been found in cattle (mammals),” said TD Cowen in its report.
H5N1 was found to have infected a pig in the US in October 2024. The report added: “Pigs were the source of the H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009-2010."
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed a person from Louisiana previously hospitalised after being severely infected with H5N1 had died in early January 2025 — marking the first H5N1 death in the US.
TD Cowen said there are several uncertainties around the disease such as the potential for human spread and also whether the disease could increase in severity. The report added there is still uncertainty around the contributing factors to the nature of the outbreaks and “their potential for escalation into larger epidemics or pandemics”. The report said the potential impact on global public health, food security, and economic implications long term were largely unknown.
After the COVID pandemic, naturally people will be watching closely as to how H5N1 will develop. However, dedicated H5N1 vaccines are already in the trial stage. Pfizer's phase 1 trial is expected to finish in April this year, followed by GSK's in May. Moderna said in January 17, 2025, it was moving to phase 3 of its vaccine, while Sanofi's phase 1 trial for its vaccine is expected to finish in December this year.