The CORSIA Market Forecast 2026 found that while total credit supply has more than doubled over the past year, from around 15 million to over 32 million, actual availability remains limited due to insurability and authorisation challenges.
Although up to 154 million credits could be issued and approved in time for the scheme’s first compliance phase, only a portion is expected to be accessible to airlines in practice.
Insurance is increasingly being used to bridge this gap, with the potential to unlock a further 64 million credits by enabling projects through insured Letters of Authorisation. However, current insurance capacity is not sufficient to meet projected demand, raising the risk of a supply-demand imbalance as the market develops.
The report warns that in more constrained scenarios, where supply depends heavily on insurance-backed credits, available volumes could fall to around 90 million by late 2027. This tightening is expected to drive prices higher, with CORSIA credits projected to range from $8 to $32 under more balanced conditions, but potentially rising to between $34 and above $50 per credit if supply remains restricted.
The analysis also highlights concentration risks, with more than 80% of projected credits expected to come from a small number of countries, adding further uncertainty as airlines prepare for the first phase of compliance under the global carbon offsetting scheme.