A new study has found that the slow rollout of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) technology is the main barrier to achieving net zero by 2050, not the availability of feedstock.
Yesterday, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) published its latest Global Feedstock Assessment for SAF Production, as part of its Outlook to 2050 series.
The study found that, with the right policies and investments, more than 300 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced by 2050, alongside 200 Mt of electro-SAF (e-SAF), also known as power-to-liquid (PtL) SAF.
This would meet the approximately 500 Mt of SAF that IATA believes is required for the aviation industry to reach net zero by 2050.
The main challenge, according to the association, is to accelerate the rollout of new SAF production technologies, particularly PtL SAF production.
Out of the five technology pathways for SAF, the study found that PtL SAF is projected to contribute the "single largest amount of SAF" in 2050, accounting for just over 40%.
However, meeting this production challenge will require greater access to low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and improved carbon capture infrastructure, IATA added.
“We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation,” said Willie Walsh, director general of IATA.
“However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”
Through coordinated government policies, the energy industry could be incentivised to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation and align its business goals with net zero, said IATA.
This would lead to the development of an integrated and efficient global SAF market, and would strengthen feedstock supply chain infrastructure, ensuring the availability of feedstocks for SAF production.
“Governments, energy producers, investors and the aviation sector must work together, de-risk investment and accelerate rollout,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist and senior vice president for sustainability at IATA.
“Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need. The time to act is now.”