In a financial outlook for the global airline industry during 2025, IATA has forecast a “slight strengthening” of profitability, amid ongoing industry cost and supply chain challenges.
Total industry revenues are expected to top a trillion dollars in 2025, an increase of 4.4% from 2024, and the first time that industry revenues will top a trillion. Expenses are expected to grow by 4% to $940 billion.
The forecast notes that global airline net profits are expected to total $36.6 billion, a slight improvement from the expected $31.5 billion net profit in 2024. Average net profit per passenger is expected to be $7, a reduction from $7.90 recorded in 2023, but an improvement from $6.4 in 2024.
Airline operating profit is expected to be $67.5 billion during 2025, with returns on invested capital (ROIC) for the global industry expected to be 6.8% for the year. While this is an improvement from the 2024 ROIC of 6.6%, the returns for the industry at the global level remain below the weighted average cost of capital.
Also expected to rise is passenger numbers, reaching 5.2 billion next year, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024 and the first time that the number of passengers travelled within a year has exceeded the five billion mark.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, noted that the outlook would be “hard-earned” to achieve, as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs and investing in decarbonisation.
“In 2025, industry revenues will exceed $1 trillion for the first time. It’s also important to put that into perspective. A trillion dollars is a lot, almost 1% of the global economy. That makes airlines a strategically important industry. But remember that airlines carry $940 billion in costs, not to mention interest and taxes,” said Walsh.
He added: “With margins that thin, airlines must continue to watch every cost and insist on similar efficiency across the supply chain - especially from our monopoly infrastructure suppliers who all too often let us down on performance and efficiency.”
This overall financial performance is expected to improve in 2025 on the back of lower jet fuel prices and efficiency gains, with IATA also citing further any increases in airline financial performance being held back by “forced capacity discipline” resulting from unresolved supply chain issues.