Global passenger demand is expected to more than double by mid-century, according to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) latest Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP), with growth increasingly concentrated in emerging markets.
Under IATA’s central scenario, global air travel demand will reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050, up from 9 trillion RPKs in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% over the period.
Alternative scenarios suggest demand could range from 19.5 trillion RPKs (2.9% CAGR) under a lower growth outlook to 21.9 trillion RPKs (3.3% CAGR) under stronger economic conditions.
The projections incorporate variables including long-term economic growth, population trends, aviation fuel prices, capacity expansion and the pace of the global energy transition.
“The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world.”
IATA expects growth to be uneven across regions, with emerging markets expected to account for the largest share of expansion.
Asia Pacific is forecast to be the fastest-growing region with a 3.8% CAGR between 2024 and 2050, followed by Africa at 3.6%. By comparison, more mature markets such as North America (2.8%) and Europe (2.5%) are projected to grow more slowly.
The fastest-growing traffic flows are expected to include intra-Africa (4.9%), Africa–Asia Pacific (4.5%), and Asia Pacific–Middle East (3.9%), underscoring the importance of infrastructure investment and regulatory development in emerging aviation markets.
Despite strong long-term demand, the pace of aviation growth continues to moderate as markets mature.
IATA noted that annual passenger demand growth has slowed from 6.1% between 1972 and 1998 to 4.5% between 1998 and 2024, with the projected 3.1% CAGR to 2050 reflecting the continued maturation of global air transport.
The association also highlighted that the COVID-19 crisis created a permanent structural shift in demand, with global RPK levels unlikely to return to the historical pre-pandemic trajectory aligned with GDP growth.
For airlines, manufacturers and aircraft lessors, the projections reinforce expectations for continued long-term fleet expansion, particularly in Asia Pacific and Africa where rising incomes and population growth are expected to stimulate demand.
At the same time, IATA stressed that meeting future demand will depend on sufficient infrastructure development, regulatory harmonisation and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels, as the industry navigates the transition to lower-carbon operations.