Global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) spending is projected to reach $153bn by 2035, according to a new report published by Alton Aviation Consultancy.
Detailed within the “2025 - 2035 Global MRO Demand Forecast”, it is stated that MRO spend is projected to grow 1.9% annually over the next decade.
In 2024, global MRO spend totalled $124bn, with Alton estimating that this spend will grow to $127bn in 2025 and eventually reaching $153bn in the next ten years.
The report indicated that this spending growth would come from a combination of higher material cost escalation and labour cost inflation, higher aircraft utilisation, and fewer-than-expected retirements contributing to strong long-term MRO demand growth.
By aircraft type, narrowbody jets will represent the strongest MRO demand, growing from its current share of 55% of total demand to 65% over the next ten years, something which Alton said will be in line with the growth of the global narrowbody fleet.
Engine MRO is expected to represent about half of this total MRO spend. This is followed by component MRO at 21%, line maintenance at 12%, airframe heavy maintenance at 7%, and modifications at 6%.
“Airlines are prioritising capacity growth to meet rising passenger demand, and with fewer retirements, older, more maintenance-intensive aircraft are remaining in service longer,” said Adam Guthorn, co-author of the report and managing director at Alton’s New York office.
According to the report, North America MRO demand will grow 2.7% annually, faster than the global average, largely driven engine-related costs and the modifications segment. Asia Pacific will remain the largest market, accounting for more than one-third of total global MRO spend by 2035.
It was also noted that an increase in global trade friction led by US tariffs could threaten global economic recovery, impacting aircraft utilisation and MRO demand.