European airlines are set to face strong seat growth during the first half of 2025, according to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence.
The data outlines that capacity in European airline markets appears set to climb faster than GDP growth during the first half of the year, likely pressuring fares. Seat growth appears strongest into Australasia and China, as some of those markets still haven't recovered to 2019 capacity levels.
Intra-Europe capacity for European carriers is expected to grow by 4-5%, outpacing regional GDP growth and potentially putting pressure on fares. Transatlantic capacity, the second-most critical market for full-service airlines like IAG, Air France, and Lufthansa, is set to slow in the year’s first quarter, a traditionally weak season, before rebounding in the second quarter.
Middle East carriers will see slower capacity growth in the first half of the year, though it will still outpace GDP expansion, putting further pressure on Asian fares. Despite this strong growth, Japan remains the only market still significantly below its 2019 capacity levels.
Full-service airlines are expanding at a faster pace than low-cost carriers, particularly as Ryanair and Wizz are expected to slow down during the year’s second quarter, the intelligence reported.
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