Not only is aviation facing the biggest slowdown in its history market players are expecting recovery to be equally slow paced, according to a survey of industry executives by consultants ICF.
According to the results of the ICF survey, just over one-third of respondents anticipate activity will return to pre-crisis levels within a year. In contrast, nearly half of respondents expect recovery will take up to two years.
This is actually quicker than the time it took aviation to recover from previous crises, with ICF saying it took the United States nearly four years to recover to pre-September 11 traffic levels, whereas it took the United States and the United Kingdom nearly seven years to recover to traffic levels from before the 2008 financial crisis.
However, the consultancy has a more negative outlook for aviation sector than its survey respondents.
“Given how deep the present crisis is, and the growing probability that it will trigger a global economic recession, we expect the recovery period to be significantly longer than our respondents’ expectations. It is important to remember, however, that traffic has always come back.,” said ICF in the report.
The survey was conducted in late March and early April 2020 and includes feedback from senior and mid-level executives globally and from all parts of the commercia aviation sector.
Unsurprisingly the ICF survey also found that the COVID-19 crisis has resulted in a total or partial shutdown of their business with half of respondents expected this to last three or four months, and one-third of think it can last five to 12 months.
Nine out of 10 respondents expect passenger behaviour to change, particularly with regards to the increased use of remote solutions for work and education. However, respondents are split over the potential changes to passenger behaviour, with about half expecting an increased preference for nonstop flights and a reduced demand for large events like conferences.
According to the ICF survey, COVID-19 will also result in new processes and regulations affecting everything from aircraft sanitary inspections to airport passenger screening.
“There may also be increased scrutiny placed on the health and sanitary conditions of individual countries that could impact air service and passenger demand,” said the ICF report.