Airlines have yet to make significant changes to fleet plans despite the Iran conflict and rising fuel price risks, according to equity research from French bank BNP Paribas.
The bank said investors remain “relatively safe” on the near-term outlook for civil aviation, noting that any reduction in flying appears manageable and has not yet translated into meaningful shifts in airline behaviour or aircraft demand.
BNP Paribas said the Middle East accounts for a low-to-mid teens percentage of backlog at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), the civil aircraft division of Boeing. Much of this backlog is scheduled for delivery from 2030 onwards and is concentrated in programmes such as the 787 and 777X.
The research also highlighted that recent technical issues affecting around 25 Boeing 737 Max aircraft are expected to shift some deliveries from the first quarter to the second quarter, but are unlikely to impact full-year guidance.
More broadly, investors continue to view the aerospace cycle as a structural growth driver, although expectations for upside in first-quarter earnings guidance remain limited. Some investors expressed concerns about valuations in US aerospace, with a preference in some cases for European names offering similar exposure at lower multiples.
BNP Paribas said the impact of higher fuel costs linked to the conflict remains a key risk for airlines, but noted that capacity reductions and operational adjustments have so far been limited.
The bank added that long-term questions remain over industry structure, including the role of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in capturing more value from aircraft programmes and aftermarket services.