Airlines have cut flight schedules sharply in response to the ongoing Middle East conflict, erasing expected growth in April and disrupting global travel patterns, according to a research note from BNP Paribas.
The French bank said global airline schedules for April have been reduced by about 5%, fully offsetting previously expected year-on-year growth. March schedules were also cut by around 3.5%, with reductions accelerating in recent weeks.
The most significant impact has been in the Middle East, where flight schedules are down 23% in March and 35% in April so far. Flights from major regional hubs are operating at roughly 35% below pre-conflict levels, with activity largely flat week-on-week.
Disruptions are also spreading to other regions. In Asia, schedules have been reduced by about 2.5% in March and 3.6% in April, while Europe has seen cuts of around 2.1% and 3.3% respectively. North America has so far experienced only limited reductions of about 0.5%.
BNP Paribas said the cuts reflect both airspace disruptions and rising fuel costs linked to the conflict. If jet fuel prices remain at current elevated levels, the bank estimates that air traffic growth could face mid-single-digit percentage downside risks, given fuel accounts for around 20% of airline costs and demand sensitivity to pricing.
The note added that prolonged high oil prices, well above $100 per barrel, could eventually lead airlines to retire older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, although this would likely take several months to materialise.
The findings highlight how geopolitical tensions are increasingly affecting airline capacity, with carriers adjusting schedules and routes as they respond to higher costs and operational constraints.