The disruption to aviation across the Middle East has inevitably prompted speculation that Europe’s airlines might finally reclaim market share from their Gulf competitors. From where we sit, that looks unlikely.
The dominance of Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways was built over decades, not weeks. Even with connectivity temporarily reduced through hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, the structural advantages that underpin the Gulf airline model remain firmly in place.
Much of that advantage comes from the economics of scale. Emirates in particular has effectively created a long-haul airline operating at a cost base closer to that of a low-fare carrier, combining very high aircraft utilisation with a geographically ideal hub that aggregates global traffic flows. Many airlines have attempted variations of this model. Few have succeeded.
Suggestions that European carriers could use the disruption to expand direct Europe–Asia services overlook the constraints they face. Aircraft shortages at Airbus and Boeing mean fleets are already stretched, while the North Atlantic remains far more profitable for groups such as International Airlines Group, Lufthansa Group, and Air France-KLM.
Even if a temporary gap in the market exists, Europe’s airlines may not have the spare aircraft to exploit it.
Meanwhile, the next major competitive force in the region is already preparing to enter the market. Riyadh Air, backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, is being built with the explicit ambition of turning Riyadh into another global aviation hub. With tens of billions of dollars committed to aviation infrastructure and fleet expansion under the kingdom’s Vision 2030 programme, the airline will enter the market with the kind of financial backing few start-ups in aviation history have enjoyed. If anything, the next decade may see the Gulf hub model expand rather than contract.
A few weeks of conflict will not undo decades of strategy, investment and ambition in the Gulf aviation sector.
A few weeks of conflict won’t derail the Gulf airline model
