The profile of the UAE has been damaged over the past seven days as its spat with Canada rumbles on. The general rule in global diplomacy remains the same now as it always has, if you seek expansion then keep quiet, divide and rule, use everything to your advantage, say one thing and do another. Woe betide if you follow this policy and then all of a sudden alert everyone to the fact that you want something so badly that if you do not get it then you will do everything in your power to force the issue. Such is the current situation being portrayed by the global media, and with it the UAE has played into the hands of the airlines of the EU and USA as they seek, quite rightly, to force an end to the export credit agreement between the two of them that now plays into the hands of all airlines not based within their borders. The timing of this has been most fortuitous for EU and US-based airlines but only compounds the problem for the likes of Etihad and Emirates. These two UAE airlines are now firmly in the focus of western media at the very same time the same regions launch biting austerity measures that will no doubt spark protectionist feelings.
It is highly likely that the move by the UAE to block Canada at the UN and dismiss its troops from a base on its soil will help airlines within the EU and US force through a change to the outdated export credit agreements currently in place. The UAE will lose a significant edge within global aviation because it pushed too hard.
The question asked in 12 months time will be this: Have the Gulf state airlines given themselves a foundation over the past ten years that cannot be countered? Well it may just be that the gulf state airlines have aircraft being delivered that they now cannot deploy.