These are dark days indeed for engine manufacturer CFM, not because things are going wrong in the here and now but because the future outlook seems jaded at best. CFM has stated that the Leap X engine will be offered on the 737 replacement come what may, this together with the fact that it is the engine for the A320neo and the C919 means that it is all that remains in the tank for order prospects over the next decade or so.
The recent orders for the PW1000G GTF engine on the A320neo were logical given the information currently to hand, as we mentioned here and in Airline Economics a few months ago. However the decision by AVIC to bring forward the domestic engine program for the C919 is pivotal and we should all take note.
The reason?
The reason is that AVIC is developing a GTF with help from both Pratt & Whitney and MTU. AVIC and COMAC are quite right to be worried. The C919 could be as good and as cheap as the brochure states it will be but this would be worth nothing if the aircraft does not offer the global engine type of the future. COMAC and AVIC understand fully that the GTF type engine is looking like the future and they are ensuring that their bets are hedged. CFM’s market leading position and reputation now hangs in the balance and the Leap X will have to operate at the very top of estimations to even take 50% of the market where it is an option.
So your (and COMAC’s) worry now? Why order a C919 until the full details and launch dates for the new AVIC engine are released? Airline Economicswill be weighing the options and giving an opinion of which option an airline and/or lessor should take with no messing about and straight answers.
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