Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is “significantly below” estimates in 2024, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on December 10, 2024.
The association said SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes - or 1.3bn litres, doubling on 2023's levels. In addition, SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel.
“This is significantly below estimates that projected SAF production in 2024 at 1.5 million tonnes (1.9bn litres), as key SAF production facilities in the US have pushed back their production ramp up to the first half of 2025,” IATA read in a statement.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said: “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies, which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle.”
Walsh added that airlines are “eager to buy SAF” and that there is “money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonisation”. He advised SAF investors' profitability expectations to be “slow and steady, not fast and furious”.
SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7bn litres) or 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity.
To reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA's analysis found that between 3,000 to over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants needed to be built. The annual average capex needed to build these new facilities over the period is around $128bn per year in a best-case scenario.
“The good news is that the energy transition, which includes SAF, will need less than half the annual investments that realising wind and solar production at scale required,” said Walsh.
The total sum of investments in the solar and wind energy markets were estimated at $280bn per annum between 2004 and 2022.
IATA detailed some short term measures that could accelerate SAF production, including existing refineries being used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstock alongside the crude oil streams. IATA said this solution could be implemented quickly and should be urgently expanded by allowing a greater amount of renewable feedstock to be co-processed. Co-processing could save around $357bn by 2050.
In addition, it suggested diversifying SAF production such as through other certified pathways than the HEFA method that uses cooking oil, animal fats, etc. as feedstock. Other pathways include alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which use biological and agricultural wastes and residue.
IATA also urged for the creation of a global SAF accounting framework. “It is essential to have a registry that allows airlines to benefit from the environmental attributes of their SAF purchases and to be able to claim these against their obligations in a transparent manner that prevents double counting,” read IATA in a statement. The registry, it says, would be essential in achieving a global SAF market.