A recent survey report from the European Travel Commission (ETC) has demonstrated the negative impact of the Omicron outbreak and the fragmented travel restrictions in response on Europeans' travel confidence. Newly restrictions and requirements, even for vaccinated or recovered travellers, have hampered Europeans' readiness to travel and has left many unsure about the timing of their next trip. Fragmented policies across Europe towards the validity period of the EU Digital COVID certificate for national use also undermined its role as a tool to facilitate travel.
As a result, Europeans are avoiding making concrete plans and bookings. For instance, hesitation on when to travel has increased from 11% in September 2021 to 21% in December. 36% of early bird travellers plan to embark on holidays in May or June 2022, and only 17% of them have fully booked their next trip.
Nonetheless, more than half (61%) of Europeans remain optimistic about travelling between January-June 2022, demonstrating continuous resilience in spite of disruption caused by Omicron. Intra-European trips remain the preferred choice for 50% of 'early bird' travellers.
The intention to stay longer and spend more while at their chosen destination is another positive trend amongst travellers, determines the ETC report. This correlates to a growing desire for trips in early summer. Preference for journeys of over 10 nights surges by 38% compared to the previous survey, while the share of travellers planning to spend more than 2.000 euros grows by 31%, specifically among those with travel plans in May or June 2022.
Leisure travel remains the top choice for 63% of 'travel-ready' Europeans. At the same time, business travel is also showing signs of improvement for the first time since autumn 2020. Over the next months, 15% of respondents expect to travel for business or participate in events and conferences.
Most European airlines are preparing for a robust Summer season even as bookings are being cancelled to various European destinations for the February school holidays, as Spain restricts entry to all unvaccinated travellers over 12 years of age.
Meanwhile, IAG is again being forced to consider the future place of British Airways in its portfolio should rules to ensure all airlines located in the European Union (EU) are owned and controlled by EU companies. In a report by the Daily Telegraph, HSBC analysts suggest that IAG may be forced to make BA a truly independent company. The UK and the EU are still negotiating this requirement in the final regulations. HSBC analyst Andrew Lobbenberg suggested that France and Germany would vote against scrapping these rules to benefit their own national airline companies.
“We think that through 2021 the EU has simply suspended disbelief on this matter as negotiations were ongoing between the EU and UK,” added Lobbenberg. He further suggested that IAG may consider demerging its non-EU business of British Airways into a separate non-EU owned company, leaving the legacy business EU owned.