Credit ratings agency DBRS Morningstar says growth prospects for airports "may vary" in 2023, with North America likely to fare better than Europe due to a more favourable macroeconomic outlook.
"We believe the large domestic market segment in the US will provide more stability and mitigate any global factors that may adversely affect passenger traffic in 2023," DBRS said in a recent report, adding that the US and Canadian governments offered "greater financial support" to airports than was the case in Europe, where the agency said there were "more challenging regional factors that may dampen the outlook of the airports".
Any recession in North America is likely to be "shallow" and "short-lived", according to DBRS, which warned of a less-rosy outlook for across the Atlantic.
"The inflationary pressure in Europe and the UK is especially daunting and is already causing labour disruptions in the education, transportation, and storage sectors. If the labour disruptions persist and increase in frequency in 2023, it may negatively affect airport operations," DRBS warned. In turn, the agency said, "some airports may face more financial pressure than others in light of certain ongoing regional factors that are unlikely to subside materially in 2023".
The spikes in passenger traffic seen in Europe in 2022 are unlikely to persist into 2023, DBRS said, as these were driven by the release of "pent-up demand" after travel curbs were removed and arguably flew in the face of the high inflation numbers seen throughout the year.
The UK's airports could be hard-hit, the agency warned, with gross domestic product (GDP) on track to shrink by 1% in 2023 and with no end in sight to the strikes that have affected swathes of industry, including transport sectors such as aviation, since mid-2022.
And while other European nations are likely to fare better, the wider outlook for the continent is "uneven", DBRS said, citing variations in passenger demand across nations, with German airports slower to recover than counterparts in France and Spain.