Airframe deliveries are likely to rise for most aircraft in 2025, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report. The analysts George Ferguson and Melissa Balzano had a much more positive outlook for next year.
“Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer deliveries will likely rise for most aircraft in 2025, as supply chains continue to heal and backlogs remain large,” the analysts said.
Boeing is set to lead the ramp-up with the greatest increase in deliveries. The analysts noted that with the impact of strike fading by next year, coupled with it incorporating Spirit AeroSystems back into the fold next year, as well as the supplier’s quality improving. The American OEM had restarted production of its best-selling 737 MAX aircraft earlier in December – more than a month after the strike began.
However, Boeing has yet to reach the 38 monthly production cap on its 737 MAX programme, which was instated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) after the Flight 1282 incident in January 2024. The event saw a door plug blow out shortly after takeoff on an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX flight. FAA’s outgoing administrator Matt Whitaker said in September that Boeing had to be “in the green” before the cap was raised. A person familiar with the matter said that once that first initial cap was raised, further increases were sure to follow swiftly after. For the meantime, the company is placing emphasis on its return to form: putting quality and safety at the forefront.
In addition, the company’s target of 42 737 MAX planes per month has been pushed back to March 2025. The original target date had been September 2024.
With all these factors working in Boeing’s favour, it could see the largest increase in deliveries, outpacing its competitor Airbus, in 2025.
“Boeing could deliver about 500 commercial airplanes, an increase of 45%,” said the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. Out of these deliveries, the “profit and cash-flow” driving 737 MAX would “make up the lion’s share” of deliveries at 384 next year – also marking a 45% increase in 2025 over the previous year.
The report expects the first opportunity for suppliers to increase output would emerge in mid-to-late 2025.
The report further added that widebody deliveries could “record strong gains” next year with substantial backlogs and an improving supply chain.
“The Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 are most important from a backlog and volume perspective, and shipments may climb more than 50%,” the report continued. The 787 could rise as much as 65% to 76 deliveries next year and the A350 might see an increase of 52% to 82 deliveries.
In addition, Airbus’ commercial aircraft deliveries is expected to increase 13% next year with diminishing constraints in the supply chain, the report added. This year, Airbus is racing to meet its 770 commercial jet deliveries full year target. Up to November, the French manufacturer has delivered 643 aircraft for the year – meaning it will need to ship 127 jets in December to hit its target.
“We assume Airbus meets its 2024 guidance of 770 commercial aircraft deliveries, though it will be difficult,” the report added. “It’s likely the company will have a similar year-end push in 2025.”
Airbus’ A320 family, which is the “most important” to Airbus’ financial results, will likely increase around 7% in 2025 to 662 jets delivered. In addition, the A220 narrowbody will see shipments rise about 18% next year, compared to this year, to 80 jets shipped.
Embraer’s shipments of its regional and small narrowbodies are likely to rise around 10% next year as “keeps inching up production on a slowly growing backlog”. The company’s E175 programme will likely increase the most, outpacing Embraer’s widebody output, as corporate demand on regional services continues to increase – particularly within the US.
“Embraer needs more sales to significantly boost builds and deliveries as its backlog is about five years,” the report explained. “The Airbus A220 has a bit more room to run with a six-year backlog.”
The report added that both Boeing and Airbus’ strong backlogs signals a positive outlook for gains in 2026 and beyond. Boeing’s backlog is currently at 5,499 aircraft – including 4,218 737s. Airbus has a backlog of around 8,697 aircraft.