Headlines everywhere seem to be focused on when people will be able to book holidays. In the UK, the media has been reacting to the prime minister’s indication that people perhaps shouldn’t consider booking holidays just yet, which inevitably perhaps set off a wave of reactions from other politicians to comment to the contrary.
In the US, Spring break bookings are low and in the UK and Europe Easter holidays are unlikely – all hopes are being pinned on a summer get away, even on a staycation basis. Of course staycations in the UK means no flying, whereas for larger countries domestic air travel should gain a slight summer boost.
The real worry is if Covid vaccination passports are made mandatory for international travel, which will severely curtail air travel and curb the predicted bounce back in demand once lockdowns are lifted. IATA and many in the aviation industry are pushing for better testing as the key to reopen the skies rather than vaccination passports but there is little evidence that governments are convinced by this argument.
The tide of public/media opinion seems to be leaning towards the inevitability of vaccination passports, which in any case may be demanded by any business that is open to any sort of liability. Staff may be required to be inoculated when working with the public, public events may also need to insist on vaccinations before granting entry – governments will probably prefer to be guided in this way rather than impose regulation to insist on a vaccine card, which smacks of civil liberty control.
Once again, airlines and other travel companies are at the whim of the economic and political response to the virus. The only way out is to ramp up vaccinations – push them out to the working population to get us moving, travelling, flying, meeting and generating revenue to help rebuild the global economy. That much commented notion of pent-up demand is transforming into real frustration among business generators forced to sit on their hands waiting for markets to reopen. The open letter from BALPA (see below) to the UK prime minster echoes this level of frustration in the aviation industry with the stark choice of either opening up and ending the aviation shutdown now while also providing “significant economic support”, or sacrificing the aviation industry, which BAPLA right states “would be a disaster for UK plc”. That is the stark choice facing the industry now in many jurisdictions.