Current forward-looking schedule data indicate over 30% of capacity has returned in the Chinese domestic market in the last two months, marking a positive sign for short-haul travel recovery as lockdown restrictions in the country are eased, according to Cirium.
According aviation analysts pointed out that the dramatic drop in capacity globally compared with 2019 due to Covid 19 remains in stark contrast to the forecast from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in December last year, which projected capacity growth of 4.7% in 2020.
Cirium’s ‘seven-day prior metric’ shows active aircraft have increased globally by 6%, flight cycles by 14% and hours flown by 13%, compared with a week before on April 27 2020, indicating a positive trend is emerging as some regions begin to ease lockdown measures. However, year-on-year, active aircraft are down by 72%, flight cycles by 82% and hours flown by 84%, compared with May 6 2019.
Aircraft utilisation also remains dramatically lower than pre-COVID 19 levels for in-service jets, with single-aisle aircraft usage down 43% on average since the start of year. Twin-aisle aircraft utilisation is faring better, down just 29% on the start of the year, but many of these aircraft are being used for non-scheduled cargo services
According to Cirium, around 13,700 aircraft, 62% of the global passenger fleet, still remain parked around the world as of May 4, 2020, while the in-service fleet of 8,320 aircraft per May 4 is approximately the same size as that operated in 1993. However, more than 2,600 passenger jets have returned to service since March 1 – 31% of which in the China domestic market