Analysts at financial firm Jefferies are predicting a Q3 2020 restart for 737 MAX deliveries as part of their estimate that airframe make will make a total of 494 aircraft deliveries this year against 380 in 2019.
In February, Boeing delivered 17 commercial aircraft against 49 for the same period 12 month’s earlier but despite this decline Jefferies said it expected a total uplift for the year overall due it the restart of 737 MAX deliveries later this year. S
Jefferies notes that order activity in February remained muted, with 18 new orders, but 46 cancellations/contractual changes but cited the positive of new orders for 17 B787s, including swaps from 19 B737 MAXs to seven 787s for Oman Air and Air Lease Corporation.
The current backlog for the MAX totals 4,504 aircraft, down 41 aircraft from January, but the analyst report said, “We forecast deliveries restarting in Q3, 2020 with a production rate of 21 per month”
For the 787, deliveries totaled 12 units against 11 in February 2019, a figure which is below the current stated production rate of 14 a month, which is expected to step down to 12 a month in late 2020 and 10a month in early 2021.