With international travel at about 85% of the level seen before the coronavirus lockdowns and border closures, some in the airline industry could be forgiven for worrying that inflation pressures could stop consumers from making up that last 15%.
But Willie Walsh, the director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), believes that with Asia re-opening and domestic travel worldwide "effectively back to where it was", it is but a matter of time before those pre-Covid heights are hit.
"We're confident, still a way to go to get back to where we were in 2019", said Walsh, speaking to Aviation News/Airline Economics at the Sustainable Skies World Summit 2023.
"With Asia reopening I think that's a positive development", added Walsh, a former chief executive of Aer Lingus, British Airways and International Airlines Group.
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IATA DG Willie Walsh at the Sustainable Skies Summit 2023 in Farnborough (Photo: Simon Roughneen)[/caption]
In 2022, airports and carriers struggled to cope with resurgent travel demand in Europe and North America at least, after Covid travel curbs were removed.
But was the post-pandemic rebound ephemeral? Will people, once the novelty of flying again wears off, be forced to retrench and cut back, not least as the period since the removal of restrictions has been marred by rising inflation and cost-of-living challenges, with basics such as fuel and food much more expensive than before the pandemic.
"No, I don't think so" Walsh said, asked if last year's surge was a one-off. And as for the macro-economic challenges facing airlines, those are not new, he said, adding "we've seen this before and what we've seen in the past is that people still want to take that holiday".
And a key difference between 2023 and periods such as after the 2007-8 global financial crisis, is that employment remains high.
"Cost of living, inflation, those are challenges, yes", Walsh said. "But they've eased since last year and employment levels are still very high" he said.
For airlines concerned about losing business to consumers forced to spend more on food or fuel, "that helps offset some of these other concerns", according to Walsh.