The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) believes the end of 2023 will see growth in passenger demand of "around 3% on 2019 figures".
The United Nations body said it used "big data analytics" to forecast that air passenger demand would revive to pre-pandemic levels "on most routes" early in 2023. after 2022 saw a 47% jump compared to 2021, revenue per passenger kilometres surge by around 70% and the number of operating aircraft at around three-quarters of 2019.
"Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the Covd-19 pandemic,” said ICAO council president Salvatore Sciacchitano.
For the two main manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, ICAO data showed increases in 2022 of 53% for orders and 20% for deliveries, with orders topping 2019.
The ICAO projected airlines would "return to operating profitability" during the final three months of the year ahead of a further jump in air passenger demand in 2024, which the agency said would amount to growth of 0.7% over the 2019-2024 period.
However the "pace of growth for air cargo" is expected to be lower in 2023, the ICAO said, citing "the slowing global economic growth".
The ICAO further warned that its 2023 predictions were based on "risks affecting international air transport" remaining at "current levels".