Aviation analytics firm IBA sees lease extensions and follow-on leases outstripping new lease placements in 2023, hampering overall lessor growth.
However "further growth" could be expected for mature aircraft lease rates during the year, according to a presentation given in Dublin on January 18 by IBA chief economist Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans, director of valuations and consulting.
The leasing market will likely see further mergers and acquisitions in 2023, but the wider industry is likely to be affected by macroeconomic conditions, with a global slowdown "already here" and consumer and business debt set to "strain spending and impact employment".
The recovery in air passenger numbers seen in 2022 is likely to continue, IBA said, though passenger yield are likely to moderate due to additional capacity, meaning girline profits will rise modestly in 2023, with "lower unit costs partly offset by lower unit revenue".