New narrow-body aircraft base values climbed "beyond the long-term trend into 2023", according to analysis by IBA, an aviation market intelligence company, with lease rates set to climb during the year,
IBA analysts said the base value of a new Airbus A220-300 was $38.25 million in 2019 but will climb to $39.227 million in 2023, witb he Boeing 737-MAX 8 u from $52.306 million to $53.125 million over the period.
Lease rates for a new A220-300 were $266,000 per month in January 2020 but were expected to grow to US$278,000 by July 2023, IBA said, with the 737 MAX 8 up $30,000 to US$335,000 per month by January 2023.
Older models were likely to continue to fall in price, but with a "some market value recovery" in early 2023 possible.
"!A 12-year-old Boeing 737-900ER base value was at $21.462 million in 2019 and is expected to fall to $19.865 million in 2023, The same age A320-200 aircraft was at $18.713 million in 2019 and is forecast to drop to $17.626 million in 2023," IBA said.
A ten-year-old A321-200 was available at $178,000 per month in January 2021 and is expected to reach US$216,000 pm in July 2023, below the S231,000 pm level in January 2020.
"New generation wide-body lease rates are rising with some lag, with more subdued value gains," IBA said, with an Airbus A350-900 was at $925,000 per month in January 2021, ahead of an an increase to $954,000 in January 2023 and a predicted rise to $1.007 million by July 2023.
For new generation regional aircraft, base values have risen, with the ATR72-600 at $21.6 million in early 2019 but predicted to rise to $22.011 million in 2023.
But mid-life regional aircraft values have declined in the same period, IBA said, albeit with market value and lease rate performance recovering for the popular models such as the ATR72 and Embraer E-Jets.
Converted freighter aircraft base values are expected to drop slightly, in IBA's eyes, with an 18-year-old A330-300 aircraft at $35.439 million in 2022 ahead of a fall to $34.920 million in 2023.