Speaking at the 2024 Changi Aviation Summit Singapore, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Willie Walsh highlighted that although the global aviation industry continued to make a strong recovery in 2023 – with a full year performance at just over 94% of 2019’s figures – future growth is likely to be curtailed by ongoing challenges within the industry.
Over the next 20 years, IATA predicts that the industry will grow at 3.3% per annum, “significantly lower” than the growth witnessed during 2010 to 2019, which “does reflect some of the challenges” likely to continue impacting the industry. These include infrastructure constraints both in the air and on the ground, supply chain issues “which have now been a feature of the industry for a number of years”, including engine problems, the delay of new deliveries, and ongoing labour shortages.
Although the Asia-Pacific market’s recovery has been slightly slower than the international sector's (at about 32% in 2023), this region is “likely to lead the markets with growth around 4.5% per annum” over the next two decades, having reached almost 35% of the global market in 2019. However, with international travel within the Asia-Pacific region down to 9.7% in 2023, there is “huge opportunity for continuing recovery in the market here,” highlighted Walsh.
However, Walsh also cautioned the “complete disconnect between passenger growth and…C02 growth” across the industry as a whole, explaining that between 2000 and 2019, C02 footprint increased by 54% while passenger traffic grew 175%. However, “as I stand and look at the future of this industry, I’m very confident that we can overcome all of the challenges we’re likely to face,” he concluded.
IATA: Future annual industry growth of 3.3% impacted by ongoing challenges
