IATA and partners release Aviation Net Zero roadmaps comparative review

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and its partners have released the Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review, the first publication to compare ’14 leading net zero CO2 transition roadmaps for aviation’. Aiming to be a ‘one-stop-shop’ for airlines, policymakers and aviation stakeholders to ‘better understand the key similarities and differences between the various roadmaps and their vision for achieving net zero emission for aviation by 2050,’ each pathway has been analysed in a variety of ways. These include scope, key input assumptions, modelled aviation energy demand, CO2 emissions and the emission reduction potential of emerging technologies such as SAF, new fuels and operational improvements. The ’key assumptions’ of various authors regarding how decarbonization technologies and solutions may evolve plays a major role in differentiation between various reports, highlights IATA, with the estimated emissions reduction savings by hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft varying ‘greatly across the roadmaps’. Uncertainty regarding the future price of renewable energy is also of key concern. However, all decarbonisation scenarios agree that technological and operational efficiency improvements will have ‘a similar role in the net zero transition’, both contributing to around 30% of the emissions reduction by 2050. ‘Almost all’ of the global roadmaps also concur that the aviation sector will require support from market-based measures and carbon removals to address the residual emissions in 2050. Additionally, although all roadmaps assume that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will be responsible for the highest volume of CO2 reductions by 2050, SAF’s specific role varies from 24%-70%. ‘This wide range reflects the uncertainties regarding potential supportive government action, the level o investments, cost of production, and profit potential, as well as access to feedstocks,’ cautions IATA. Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist, added that the report’s analytical findings were “particularly important for SAF where strong and urgent public policy” is needed to increase production. “Without that, no version of the roadmaps will get us to net zero carbon emissions by 2050,” she concluded. The comparative report was written in conjunction with the Air Transport Systems Laboratory at University College London (UCL), the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICTT) and the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP).