HSBC’s Global Freight Monitor report predicts a ‘solid peak season’ for air cargo in Q4 2023 in the Asia-Pacific region, with logistics provider DHL expecting the momentum in Asian volumes to continue until mid-December (driving backlogs in mainland China and Hong Kong).
Cathay Pacific’s air cargo business (with an estimated market share of 30% of total 2023 revenue) is expected to benefit the most from these increased volumes, along with DHL’s Express segment.
Despite muted business-to-business volumes, China’s cross-border e-commerce (particularly from Shein and Temu to the US and Europe) is instrumental in the growth. As of 4 December 2023, the air freight rate indices for shipments out of Shanghai and Hong Kong rallied 41% and 36% vs end-3Q23, respectively.