Honeywell has published its 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, forecasting a record-breaking number of new business jet deliveries over the next decade.
According to the report, 8,500 business jets are expected to be delivered over the next decade, with a total value of $283bn. This represents an average annual growth rate of 3%.
Over the next decade, strong demand for new jets will continue, despite a backdrop of "increasingly complex" macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, the report found.
In 2026, new business jet deliveries are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025. The report also found that 20% of business jet operators globally have at least one aircraft on firm order – up from 17% a year ago.
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic analyses, OEM production and development plans, and analysis of Cirium and WINGX industry data.
In partnership with Seefeld Group and Ad Hoc Research, Honeywell also conducted a survey of 312 non-fractional business jet operators, representing a fleet of 1,199 aircraft worldwide.
The survey found that 91% of respondents expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 compared to 2025.
When purchasing an aircraft, 89% of respondents said they consider "performance" among their top three criteria – up from 82% last year.
"Cost" remains a distant second at 56%, which is down slightly from 60% last year.
Demand for fractional ownership continues to lead industry growth, with midsize and super midsize being the jets of choice for these customers.
Among those surveyed, 12% of operators of wholly owned business aircraft say they also own fractional shares.
Fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019 to roughly 1,300 aircraft now in service.
"The combination of recent economic growth, increasing demand for fractional ownership, and a steady cadence of new aircraft development and technology upgrades have produced record levels of demand in business aviation," said Heath Patrick, president for the Americas aftermarket at Honeywell.
"Operators are increasing their usage rates and, in turn, manufacturers are continuing to ramp up production to keep pace with growing demand."
Survey respondents also indicated that the return of 100% bonus depreciation following the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier this year is expected to spur additional business aircraft purchase activity.
This federal tax incentive allows businesses to deduct a large portion of the cost of certain assets – including business jets – in the year they are put into use.