As one would expect traders were greeted with a sea of red this morning after 61% of Greeks voted 'No' in a referendum asking them to accept an international creditor proposal that would have included more austerity reforms. So as the EU waits for a proposal from Greece it is clear that Greek banks will start to run dry this week – Then what?
It is clear that Greece's crisis in the last few years has actually translated into increased traffic for the likes of Qatar and Emirates from Athens to their hubs for onward connections. Emirates offers daily flights between Athens and Dubai while Qatar has three daily flights linking Athens with Doha. The Greek diaspora is very large and this crisis will make that diaspora larger still. The crisis is also leading Greek companies to create new business links with emerging markets. In fact the Athens to Sydney via Dubai route is a very big money spinner for Emirates as Australia is home to one of the largest Greek communities. So the Middle Eastern giant has a great deal ridding on what happens to the Greek economy and with over 11 million Greeks living outside of the Mediterranean region there is a great deal to play for many airlines.
Only SIA and China Eastern have direct flights out of Athens into the APAC region to Singapore and Beijing respectively, which leaves Qatar and Emirates with a potential goldmine of customers, but THY, with its new massive Istanbul hub, really has the most to gain in the mid-term and should be the go-to destination for onward connections for Greeks in the future. THY is currently offering 29,000 seats per month during summer months well above Qatar Airways on 19,000 and Emirates on 13,000.
It can be said that the Greek crisis may actually be a long-term benefit for THY, which can collect onward transits to anywhere in the globe along with Emirates via Dubai as well as Italian connections and maybe even an addition of fifth freedom flights direct between Athens and the USA in the near term (they are currently working on). Also it should be noted that Greece had 22 million tourists from overseas last year, although this may well likely decline in the near-term as the crisis plays out, but long-term any exit from the Euro could lead to a dramatic increase in tourism, so airlines may be quietly willing a move back to the Drachma.
There is a significant silver lining for aviation in the Greek situation at the moment. However there are worries at this time for Aegean Airlines and we will have to wait to see the full impact over the summer months. Another looser is Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast, which is reporting customer numbers from Greece falling rapidly by over 50% year on year, while Russian and Ukrainian customers dried-up last year, this Greece situation is a killer for Bulgarian tourism.