Firstly keep an eye on Airbus production rates as Alcoa is once again hit by strikes and. Iberia is losing $1,600 per minute, SAS is in serious trouble, Air France is slashing costs, LOT is a worry and cannot find a buyer, Aer Lingus is not in the best of shape and of course CSA is in the same situation as LOT. The Czech government though reports that Air France, Turkish Airlines, Etihad Airways and Korean Air, have all shown interest in Czech national air carrier CSA. We have reported on this interest many months ago and Air France well before that. The problem for CSA is that although its government is doing a great job in keeping the airline in sight of potential investors, it is just not attractive at this time with Europe in a recession that will get a great deal worse before it gets better.
The Czech state plans to sell a maximum of 50% minus one share in CSA so as the carrier retains its status of a national airline even after the transaction is completed and this is a further put-off for airlines looking to get EU access. Even so the Czech government feels that the process will be done and dusted by April 2013. The preferred option would be THY but would that be on the cards if it integrates further with Lufthansa?
As for Etihad Airways, well it has Air Berlin now, it has no need for CSA and indeed President and Chief Executive Officer, James Hogan seems fixed upon the US market, just as Emirates is at this time.
Etihad has an average 81% load factor on US routes in 2012 and it wants more of the same. The UAE is the single largest export market for US goods in the Middle East and the US is the fifth largest trade partner worldwide for the UAE, representing a total trade volume of $18.3 billion in 2011. All of this is not lost on the guys at Emirates though. American Airlines is the problem, since 2009, Etihad Airways has codeshares on routes to the US and that is due to be extended for connecting flights between Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles and Dallas-Fort Worth. Emirates could throw this into the long grass if it launches a move to tie with AA over the coming weeks.
For CSA it is China and Russia that could present an exceptional partner. Originally Aeroflot was going to use CSA to reach into the EU but that has faded post credit crisis. The Russian aviation market is strong though, passenger traffic is up in 2012 and Russia’s UTair Group could well test the water with an IPO in 2013 to raise $100-$350 million to fund aircraft purchases.
UTair Group, which includes UTair-Express, UTair-Ukraine, UTair-Cargo and several helicopter operators in Russia, Europe, India, South Africa and Latin America is planning to purchase 20 Airbus A321s, 40 Boeing 737s and 103 helicopters by 2017. If the IPO goes ahead and does well then the reflection on Russian aviation will be positive, it might prompt Aeroflot to start looking towards the EU again while bargins are to be had