Research with industry executives led by Cranfield University found that COVID 19 is likely to lead to a smaller, consolidated aviation sector in the future.
The research – involving a series of in-depth interviews with senior aviation industry executives along with analysis of flight and air freight data – provides an early assessment of the medium- and long-term impact of COVID 19 on air transport for both passenger and cargo traffic.
Dr Pere Suau-Sanchez, senior lecturer in Air Transport Management at Cranfield University, said: “ We focused on identifying aspects that can structurally redefine the aviation industry in the medium and long term for both passenger and cargo traffic, particularly around supply and demand, traffic resilience, passenger behaviour, health regulations and business ethics.
Understanding these structural elements in an integrated way can provide more confidence in efforts to predict the future context. As the views of senior stakeholders might change as the crisis evolves, a record of their early assessments also represents a valuable reference for future analysis.”
The full paper – An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it? – published in the Journal of Transport Geography, and co-authored with Augusto Voltes-Dorta, University of Edinburgh Business School, and Natàlia Cugueró-Escofet, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, can be read here.