Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC) has forecasted that global airlines will take delivery of 35,166 commercial jets over the next 20 years, valued at US$4.45 trillion, and China will need 5,541 mainline and regional airplanes, according its Market Forecast Report.
Global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) will register a year-on-year growth of 4.8 percent over the next 20 years, while Chinese RPK will grow 6.8 percent annually. The air travel demand in emerging economies such as China will grow faster than the global average rate. The number of air travelers will be 2.6 times of the current volume by 2033.
According to the report, there will be 39,800 passenger aircraft in 2033, more than twice of the current feet size. Single-aisle jets will remain backbone of the global fleet and the number is expected to reach 25,672. The report projects 14,538 aircraft, or about 75 percent of the current fleet will be retired. The global airlines will need more than 20,628 new aircraft, with a total of 35,166 new aircraft to be delivered.
Specifically, Chinese airlines will expand their fleet rapidly to 6,827 aircraft, accounting for 17 percent of the global fleet, instead of the current 11 percent.
The emerging market such as the BRIC countries and the development of the global low-cost airlines will drive the growth of demand for single-aisle jets. The report projects the deliveries of the single-aisle jets will reach 22,760 in the next 20 years, valued at US$2.05 trillion. Chinese airlines will take delivery of 5,541 new aircraft worth US$674 billion, and 3,687 or two-thirds of them will be single-aisle airplanes, valued at US$329.7 billion.
The proportion of turbofan regional airplanes will decrease to 14 percent in 2033 from 18 percent in 2013. The deliveries of turbofan regional airplanes are estimated at 4,541, with 86 percent being 90-seat aircraft.