The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has released its Civil Aircraft Market Forecast Report (2019-2038), and made an analysis and forecast on the civil aircraft market in China and in the world over the next 20 years. Wu Guanghui, Member of Standing Committee of the Party Committee and Vice President of COMAC, attended the release.
In 2018, China air transport industry achieved a Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) of 1071.232 billion man-kilometers, which was increased by 12.6% over the previous year; and the passenger traffic volume in 2018 was 610 million, which was increased by 10.9% over the previous year.
Therefore, there is huge demand in China's air transport market. Over the next 20 years, China's aviation market will receive 9,205 passenger aircraft with more than 50 seats, with a market value of about 1.4 trillion USD (based on the list price of the aircraft in 2018), amounting to about 10 trillion yuan. Among which, 958 turbofan regional jets with more than 50 seats, 6,119 single-aisle jets with more than 120 seats, and 2,128 dual-aisle jets with more than 250 seats will be delivered. The average annual growth rate of fleet will be 5.2%, and the average annual growth rate of RPK will be 6%. By 2038, China's RPK will reach 4.08 trillion kilometers, which will take a proportion of 21% in the global RPK. The number of aircraft in Chinese aircraft fleets will reach 10,344.
The Report forecasts that global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) will increase at an average annual rate of 4.3% in the next 20 years, and it is expected that 45,459 new aircraft valued about 6.6 trillion USD (based on the list price of the aircraft in 2018) will be delivered for use in replacement and development support of fleets. Among which, 4,756 turbofan regional jets valued about 231 billion USD, 32,055 single-aisle jets valued about 3.63 trillion USD (accounting for more than two thirds of the total delivery), and 8,648 dual-aisle jets valued about 2.76 trillion will be delivered. It is expected that by 2038, the number of aircraft in global passenger aircraft fleets will reach 49,558, which will be 2.1 times of the current number (23,893).