UK-based Cirium says the US faces a reduced regional flying in 2023 as short-haul routes of below 600 miles see reduced demand, a change the aviation analytics company said put atop its list of industry trends to watch for the year,
Meanwhile. Europe will as a whole struggle to catch up on 2019 traffic, though London Heathrow, the continent's busiest airport, is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
"All of western Europe’s major hub airports are still less busy now than they were four years ago. Paris De Gaulle’s seats are down 13%. Amsterdam’s decline is 17%. Frankfurt’s decline is 23%. The largest western European airport market that’s busier now than in 2019 is Lisbon," Cirium said, listing the departure of low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and Wizz as key to Frankfurt's fall.
Some in the industry have predicted a worldwide return to pre-2020 demand and traffic by mid-2023, driven by the resurgence of travel in Asia, where pandemic border curbs were retained for longer than in Europe and North America.
While India is likely to see a return to pre-Covid numbers, according to Cirium, east Asia has a lot of catching up to do, with Q1 2023 flight numbers down 41% on the same period in 2019. Australia and New Zealand, where strict pandemic border rules were also applied, are similarly lagging behind fellow western nations and other 2022 travel revival success stories such as Turkey and regions of South America.