Boeing projected global demand for 42,595 new commercial jets by 2042, valued at $8 trillion in its latest 2023 Commercial Market Outlook, based on the 20-year demand for commercial airplanes and services.
Boeing’s forecast comes three years post-pandemic predicting passenger traffic to outpace global economic growth of 3.6%, global fleet nearly doubling to 48,600 jets, expanding 3.5% per year and airlines replacing about half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
"The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalizing on resurgent demand," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. "Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery."
With a focus on markets in Asia, Boeing predicted Asia-Pacific markets to represent more than 40% of global demand with half of that total in China, South Asia's fleet to expand more than 7% annually, the world's fastest rate, with India accounting for more than 90% of the region's passenger traffic.
The forecast predicted North America and Europe to account for about 20% of global demand.
After omitting demand for Russia and Central Asia in last year's CMO due to uncertainty in the region, this year's forecast covers Russia and Central Asia in the Eurasia region, which comprises about 3% of the global fleet by 2042.
Commercial Services forecasts a total served market worth $3.8 trillion, including digital solutions that increase efficiency and reduce cost; robust demand for parts and supply chain solutions; growing maintenance and modification options; and effective training to enhance safety and support the pilot and technician pipeline.
In the 20-year forecast period, Boeing anticipates demand for new single-aisle jets to account for over 75% o all new deliveries with widebody aircraft taking over 20% of the deliveries.