Boeing has predicted a robust growth in Middle East civil aviation market. As per Boeing’s forecast, airlines in the Middle East will more than double their fleet size to more than 3,000 commercial aircraft valued at $765bn over the next 20 years to cater to an exponential growth in passenger traffic.
Randy Heisey, Boeing managing director of Commercial Marketing for the Middle East and Africa, and Russia and Central Asia Regions said: “The Middle East region, a popular connection point for international travelers and trade, is also growing as a starting point and destination for business and leisure passengers. The region will continue to require a versatile fleet that meets the demands of airline and air-cargo business models.”
“Middle Eastern carriers have successfully managed through challenges brought on by the pandemic by adjusting their business models and increasing usage of freighters to maximise revenue. Looking ahead, the region’s fleet is expected to expand to 3,400 airplanes to serve fast-growing passenger traffic as well as cargo demand,” he further added.
According to Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), more than two-thirds of the upcoming deliveries will enable growth, while one-third will replace older airplanes with more fuel-efficient models such as the Boeing 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner and 777X plus. The air cargo traffic flown by Middle East carriers has continued its substantial growth in recent years; two of the world’s top five cargo carriers by tonnage are based in the region. To serve future demand, the Middle East freighter fleet is projected to reach 170 by 2041, more than doubling the pre-pandemic fleet.
Boeing predicts that the passenger traffic in Middle East is expected to grow at 4% annually while widebody aircraft demand continues to be robust, with 1,290 deliveries supporting a growing network of international routes. This growth will demand single-aisle fleet that is expected to double reaching 1,650 jets to serve regional and international destinations. Demand for aftermarket commercial services including maintenance and repair valued at $275 bn.
According to Boeing’s Pilot and Technician Outlook, the Middle East region will require 202,000 new aviation personnel, including 53,000 pilots, 50,000 technicians and 99,000 cabin crew members in the next 20 years.
The CMO forecasts a global market value of $7.2 trillion for new airplane deliveries, with the global fleet increasing by 80% through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. “Approximately half of passenger jet deliveries will replace today's models, improving the global fleet's fuel efficiency and sustainability,” predicted Randy
Boeing also forecasted Saudi Arabia’s potential to become a big player in the Middle East aviation industry. Heisey said, “There are a lot of aspirations right now in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. If they're able to execute on the Vision 2030, they may be a major player in the growth here.”
The Saudi Aviation Strategy is set for tripling annual passenger traffic to 330 million by 2030, boosting the number of destinations to 250 from 99 at present and establishing a new flag carrier. This strategy is backed by $100 billion in investments from the government and private sector.
Boeing’s projections are very close to Airbus, which predicted that airlines operating in the Middle East would require 3,020 new passenger and freight aircraft deliveries by 2040.