Boeing has set its sights high, stating it will nearly double its fleet in service within two decades. In a closed media event, the American OEM said its global passenger and freighter fleet will add 43,975 new aircraft deliveries by 2043, bringing its total fleet to an estimated 50,170. Boeing’s in-service fleet at the end of 2023 was at 26,750 aircraft in total.
Some 6,195 aircraft will be retained of the current in-service fleet, while 20,565 aircraft deliveries will be for replacement. Replacements, therefore, represent 47% of the projected deliveries. The remaining 23,410 aircraft for growth represents 53% of the new deliveries.
“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth, but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions,” said Boeing global services commercial sales and marketing senior vice president Dan Abraham.
The projections echo testimonies of a similar vein from its European OEM rival Airbus a few days earlier, which had also estimated its in-service fleet to double in two decades. Airbus forecast its fleet to grow from 24,260 aircraft in service at the end of last year, up to 48,230 jets by the end of 2043.
The new deliveries over the forecast period consists of 33,380 narrowbodies, 8,065 widebodies, 1,525 regional jets, and 1,005 freighter aircraft. Narrowbodies make up around 71% of the 2043 fleet, with widebodies nearly doubling.
The commercial market outlook projected an annual growth of 3.2% for the global commercial fleet. Eurasia was identified as a key driver in the market, representing around 22% of airplane deliveries in the projected period. Following closely behind are North American and Chinese markets, respectively representing 20% of the 2043 fleet. In addition, the Middle East is set to represent around 44% of the 2043 widebody fleet, driving the strong projected growth for the aircraft type.
Despite the supply chain constraints plaguing the aviation industry at present, the aircraft manufacturer noted that air travel demand continues to outpace economic growth.
“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation,” said Boeing commercial sales and marketing senior vice president Brad McMullen. “The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges.”
Boeing’s supply chain constraints were exacerbated with the Flight 1282 incident on January 5, 2024. The company was forced to contend with its safety and quality measures in the wake of a door plug blowing out shortly after takeoff on an Alaska Airlines flight carried by a 737 MAX 9 aircraft. The subsequent grounding and 38 per month production cap cycle of the 737 MAX by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had proven a significant headwind for its first half of the year.
Boeing had delivered only 92 aircraft in the first quarter and 83 in the first quarter of this year. In May 2024, it had delivered 24 aircraft – 19 of which were 737 MAX aircraft.
During its media event, the company’s vice president of commercial marketing Darren Hulst described how the lack of new deliveries has resulted in extended aircraft retirements. He claimed: “Over the last four years, we’ve seen retirement rates cut in half because of the lack of new aircraft coming into the market.”
This trend was described as a “temporary phenomenon” with airline mitigating the lack of new aircraft and the need to provide capacity to the market.
When asked about how temporary Boeing’s supply chain constraints were estimated to be, Hulst said: “We don’t have a timeline. The general trend is definitely improving. Will it all be fixed in a year? I think the answer is unequivocally ‘no’. However, the focus that we have in our own factories and also with our suppliers is improving and providing more stability.”
Earlier in July, Boeing said it would reacquire its former subsidiary and current fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems – spun off nearly two decades ago – in an all-paper deal with equity value of around $4.7bn.
“We believe this deal is in the best interest of the flying public, our airline customers, the employees of Spirit and Boeing, our shareholders, and the country more broadly,” said Boeing’s outgoing president and CEO Dave Calhoun.
With the reacquisition deal set to close sometime in mid-2025 and a new CEO for the company to be selected at the end of this year, big changes lie ahead for Boeing that will likely set it on the path to the projections made in its commercial market outlook.
Boeing forecast to nearly double fleet in two decades, despite supply chain constraints
