In its latest World Fleet Forecast, Avolon is forecasting passenger traffic to increase by 5.2% per annum, equivalent to an average 1.6x GDP multiple. Capacity is expected to increase more slowly, by 5.1% annually on average. Cargo demand is forecast to grow at a rate of 5.6% a year.
Avolon expects over 36,000 aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years, comprising 35,500 passenger aircraft and 800 factory-built freighters. By 2033, the world jet airliner fleet will have almost doubled, increasing from 23,000 to 44,500 aircraft, of which 2,700 will be freighters.
P2F conversions will satisfy over 2/3rds of the freighter requirement, which will total 2,600 additional aircraft over 20 years. Almost 15,000 aircraft will be retired over the period, representing 63% of today’s fleet. Consequently, 40% of all deliveries will support fleet replacement, with the remaining 60% representing industry growth.
Avolon expects fleet utilisation to increase by 5%, while average seat capacity rises by 17% over 20 years, maintaining the trend to up-size within aircraft families.
System load factor will edge up slightly over the period, but will remain in a tight range around the current 80% level.