Aviation Capital CEO says tariff situation brings “chaos, volatility and uncertainty” to the market

Aviation Capital Group president and CEO Tom Baker said the tariff situation is bringing a significant disruption to the market.

“When you introduce volatility, uncertainty, and chaos, it’s a lot more challenging for airlines to operate, make money and serve the customers properly,” said Baker during a fireside chat on the last day of Airline Economics’ Growth Frontiers Tokyo conference on April 10, 2025. “What we’re seeing now is that chaos, volatility, and uncertainty.” 

Baker added that OEMs will have to “figure out how to serve their customers with as little disruption and as little additional cost as possible”. 

The discussion comes as US president Donald Trump pulled back from his reciprocal tariffs, pausing the feared trade conflict for three months. Instead, he has directed sightlines towards China, increasing the levy on imported Chinese goods to 125%. 

Tariffs had been a prevalent topic throughout the previous day of the conference. Trump’s U-turn that same day was one delegates had not predicted, with many seemingly taken by surprise the following day. These sharp changes in regulation are forming an unstable environment. Even if the tariff policy was rescinded, it will be a difficult path towards stability for the US. 

This instability has already had an impact with US carriers lowering their first quarter guidance as consumer confidence wanes in the face of economic uncertainty.  

“We are a resilient industry, so we’ll figure it out,” added Baker. “We’ll fight our way through.” 

He added: “With great change and great uncertainty comes great opportunity. Everybody needs to figure out the best way to move forward. Those who are nimble and can look around corners are going to find lots of opportunities.”