Aviation data analytics company Cirium has estimated that approximately 45,200 new passenger aircraft will be delivered between 2023 and 2042, with an estimated value of $3.2 trillion. Airbus and Boeing will remain the two dominant commercial OEMs, collectively delivering an 89% of these new aircraft.
Of these 45,200 deliveries, approximately 71% will be single-aisle models, with twin-aisles accounting for a further 16%. Regional jets make up 6% and turboprop aircraft 5%. “With global traffic almost back to 2019 levels, the increased levels of order activity in 2023 shows that the airline industry’s new growth cycle is gaining momentum,” highlighted Rob Morris, head of consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy.
Freighter deliveries will comprise 2% of all new aircraft delivered, with freight capacity forecast to grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022.
From a regional perspective, Asia will continue to see the highest growth in airlines ordered, with China forecast to have the highest passenger capacity growth rate (at over 8%). ‘This will make it the single largest country in the region for deliveries, with a 19% share of global deliveries, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries with a combined share of 24%,’ highlights Cirium. However, the country’s rapid growth may also see more orders placed with Chinese programmes (such as Comac’s C919 narrow-body airliner), potentially moving away from the major two OEMs.
North American airlines are expected to take a 20% share of these new deliveries, followed by Middle Eastern carriers with 7% (the latter’s share rising to 11% in value terms due to higher value twin-aisle deliveries).