Almost 45,000 new aircraft to be delivered by 2040, Cirium says

Up to 44,500 new aircraft could be delivered globally over the next two decades in deals worth US $2.9tn, according to industry watchers at Cirium.

The projected number of new aircraft suggests the sector's recovery from the impact of coronavirus lockdowns is on track, Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium, outlined in a new report.

“The new Cirium Fleet Forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation. The industry is undergoing structural changes, but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025," said Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium's global head of consultancy.

“The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around 22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6% annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041," Morris added.

Demand for new and more fuel-efficient jets to help the industry and governments meet "zet zero" targets will underpin the near-US $3tn worth of deals — an amount equivalent to France's 2022 gross domestic product (GDP), according to World Bank estimates.

"Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2021 passenger fleet, plus a further 2,500 aircraft that leave the passenger fleet via cargo conversion," Cirium said. "As pressure to switch to more environmentally friendly aircraft grows, replacing less efficient older-generation types will be an increasingly important element of fleet planning," it explained.

Boeing and Airbus are likely to make around 80% of the new aircraft,  despite both announcing a combined backlog of over 11,000 aircraft in late 2022.

Asia will account for 40% of new deliveries, almost half of which will be to China, which by itself will exceed Europe's total and come close to all of North America, Cirium predicted, with demand for single-aisles driving the market.