The global services market is set to see “resilient growth” over the next 20 years, buoyed by rising passenger traffic and fleet sizes, says a new report from Airbus.
In its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF), Airbus projects that the global services market will reach a total value of $311bn by 2044. This reflects a compound annual growth rate of (CAGR) of 3.6%.
China, Europe, and North America will be the top three largest services markets by 2044 in terms of total demand, though the top three regions by CAGR are expected to be South Asia, China, and Asia-Pacific.
For full-year 2025, Airbus expects that total demand for services will see a year-on-year increase of 10%.
Despite being “fundamentally shaped” by US protectionism, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions, Airbus said that 2025 has been a “solid” year, and one that highlights the resilience of the wider aviation industry.
In full-year 2025, Airbus noted that its aircraft are set to carry a record number of passengers (5bn), with total passengers growing 4.8% year over year.
This will drive an estimated $66bn in operating profits for airlines and an uplift of 5.8% in revenue per passenger kilometre (RPK) year over year (or 10.1% over 2019).
At present, around half of the global fleet of aircraft with 100+ seats are Airbus-made, and more than 13,500 of these aircraft are directly supported by Airbus itself.
Going forward, the company wants to grow this number, in line with its ambition to “act as the companion” of its customers throughout the lifecycle of the aircraft, both in terms of fleet management and operations.
By 2044, Airbus’ global fleet is set to double to 49,000, and its annual passenger traffic is set to double to 10bn.
Against this backdrop, the manufacturer said the service sector will need to grow significantly to keep these aircraft flying efficiently.
However, Airbus also noted that operators are currently flying aircraft for longer than expected, due in part to the backlog in new aircraft deliveries elsewhere in the market.
This has meant that several of its service projects, such as the Airbus Lifecycle Services Center in Chengdu, China, have performed “slightly below initial expectations” in terms of business growth.
Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP of customer services at Airbus, said that the Chengdu centre, which also provides dismantling services, has been less busy than expected due to operators' longer use of engines. The centre was opened in January 2024.
On supply issues, Grieder said that shortages of parts have showed signs of “softening”, but the industry remains significantly undersupplied in terms of both parts and aircraft.
“We are still facing a critical situation on everything linked to the supply chain,” she said.
“So what we are doing in customer services is really monitoring very closely the different suppliers and identifying the ones where we see greater risk.
“And if the situation is more critical, we are deploying specific joint improvement plans with them, as we are doing, for example, with engine suppliers.”
Going forward, Airbus said that “people and commerce” will continue to drive air traffic growth, and that manufacturers will play a greater role in supporting their customers through the lifecycle of the aircraft.
In the GSF, Airbus outlines five key service segments that will drive this growth: off-wing maintenance; on-wing maintenance; modifications and upgrades; digital and connectivity; and training.
Off-wing maintenance, the largest aftermarket segment, is set to grow from $107bn in 2025 to $218bn in 2044. On-wing maintenance is set to grow from $21bn to $34bn.
Modifications and upgrades will grow from $12bn to $17bn, while digital and connectivity, the fast-growing segment, will grow from $9bn to $26bn.
Grieder said Airbus’s digital and connectivity offerings have the potential to unlock more than $83bn in annual operational savings for its customers.
The number of digitally connected Airbus aircraft is growing rapidly, she said, having doubled since 2010. It currently stands at 11,000, and is set to rise to over 40,000 by 2040.
Arnaud Demeusois, head of services marketing at Airbus, pointed to Jetstar’s use of Skywise as an example of the cost savings and operational efficiencies that digital connectivity can offer.
Skywise is a global, open data platform created by Airbus and powered by Palantir. It connects and analyses aviation data from airlines, manufacturers, and other industry players.
In April 2025, Demeusois said that Jetstar was able to avoid 40 cancellations in a single month by using Skywise’s predictive capabilities.
The final segment in Airbus’s service offerings, training, is set to grow from $10bn to $17bn.
By 2044, Airbus projects that over 2.35 million new aviation professionals will be needed to accommodate passenger and fleet expansion. This is likely to include 663,000 new pilots, 705,000 new technicians, and over 1 million new cabin crew.