Airbus has raised its 20-year forecast for new aircraft deliveries as airlines continue to place new orders to meet the rising travel demand and to replace the ageing fleet with more advanced and fuel-efficient aircraft to achieve zero-emission.
Airbus expects 40,850 deliveries of new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, up from 39,490 aircraft in its last prediction in 2022, according to its latest Global Market Forecast revealed ahead of the Paris Airshow next week.
Of the 40,850 new deliveries through to 2042, about 58% are expected for fleet growth and 42% for replacement.
About 80% of the new deliveries, or 32,630 aircraft, will be narrowbody aircraft such as the A320 Neo and 737 Max. The remaining 20%, or 8,220 aircraft, will be widebody fleet and the bulk of these will be delivered to the Middle East.
The report predicted that the world's fleet would more than double to 46,560 aircraft in 2042, from 22,880 at the beginning of 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic. About 17,170 older aircraft will be replaced by newer fuel-efficient models, up from the 15,440 jets predicted in the previous forecast, while 23,680 planes will be used for fleet growth.
“The proportion of demand to replace older aircraft is likely to increase further going ahead to achieve the sustainability ambitions and commitments by the sector,” Airbus said.
Only 25% of the global fleet currently in service is the latest generation fuel efficient aircraft. The short-term priority for decarbonising the sector is to replace the remaining 75% of previous generation fleets,” the report added.
As per Airbus, passenger air traffic will grow annually by 3.6% over the next 20 years driven by economic expansion, a growing middle class, first-time flyers and growing trade. Major regions powering the air traffic growth will be Asia and the Middle East, led by China and India, thus shifting the aviation industry’s centre of gravity further east.
Airbus predicts 3,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries to the Middle East by 2042, up from the previous forecast of 3,020 handovers with 47% of widebody deliveries
Airbus forecasts demand for around 2,510 freighters in the next 20 years. Of these, around 920 are new-built, up from 890 jets in last year's forecast.