Airbus predicted strong passenger traffic and new delivery growth over the next two decades in its forecast published June 12, 2025.
In its latest global market forecast (GMF) for the 2025-2044 period, Airbus is predicting an annual 3.6% growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) over the period, driven by GDP growth of around 2.5% and other growth in economies, including a 1.5bn addition to the global middle classes.
Ahead of the Paris air show next week, the French OEM’s outlook for new aircraft deliveries was lifted by around 1,000 from last year to 43,420 planes. This comprises 34,250 narrowbodies and 9,170 widebodies, including around 970 freighters. Nearly half of these deliveries will replace the predicted 18,930 aircraft retirements over the period. Retirements are up from last year’s prediction by around 470 aircraft.
The global in service fleet is set to double from 24,730 at the end of 2024 to 49,210 in 2044.
Domestic India was highlighted as the fastest growing traffic market at 8.9%, followed by emerging Asia to China at 8.5% and Middle East with emerging Asia at 5.3%.
The company said its forecast had taken disruptions such as tariffs into account, with tariffs’ impact on air traffic being “currently limited”.