AerCap’s exposure to Gulf-based airlines remains limited despite rising investor concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the region, according to analysis from TD Cowen, part of TD Securities.
The broker said fears have focused in particular on Qatar Airways, following reports that the airline is seeking cost reductions, including potential lease deferrals or rental adjustments. However, The Dublin-headquartered aviation leasing exposure to Qatar Airways accounts for less than 1% of its total fleet, with overall exposure to Gulf carriers below 3%.
AerCap currently has 17 aircraft on lease to Qatar Airways, including two A321neo aircraft, eight A350-900s and seven A350-1000s. Based on current market lease rates, TD Cowen estimates monthly rents of around $455,000 for A321neos, $700,000 for 10-year-old A350-900s and $830,000 for seven-year-old A350-1000s.
The bank said that even if AerCap were to grant concessions, the impact would be limited, with each month of deferral representing roughly 0.2% of annual lease revenue. It added that any short-term disruption could be mitigated by recapturing deferred payments over the remaining lease term.
Across the region, AerCap has 47 aircraft on lease to Gulf-based airlines, including Etihad Airways, Emirates and Saudia, representing 2.8% of its total fleet of 1,716 aircraft.
TD Cowen noted that Qatar Airways appears to be the most affected carrier operationally, with around 40% of its fleet in storage, compared with less than 10% for most regional peers, reducing the likelihood of widespread lease disruptions.